Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $78,897$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,506.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(64,506.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,959$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(97.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,677.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,677.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,890$ on 2020-08-18

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $364,196$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(9.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,780.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(263,780.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,670$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(113.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,969.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(27,969.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $185,150$ on 2020-08-18

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $322,177$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(8.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,145.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(296,145.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,466$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,448.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,448.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $279,218$ on 2020-08-18

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $254,636$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(9.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(240,691.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,405$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,538.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(34,538.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,089$ on 2020-08-18

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,219$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,792.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,792.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,790$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,640.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,640.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,429$ on 2020-08-18

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $256,534$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,714.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(207,714.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,434$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,563.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,563.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $141,886$ on 2020-08-18

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,560$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,453.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(52,453.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,197$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(100.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,097.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,097.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,941$ on 2020-08-18

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,499$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(9.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,620.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(25,620.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,775$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(615 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,726.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,726.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,360$ on 2020-08-18

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 93%
Montenegro recovered 51%
Armenia recovered 50%
Russia recovered 29%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $69,673$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,238.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 72.6)}}\) (asimptote \(68,238.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $617$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(84.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{664.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 80.3)}}\) (asimptote \(664.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,717$ on 2020-08-18

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,132$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(29.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,689.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 129.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,689.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $80$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(0.642 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,017$ on 2020-08-18

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,846$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,506.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(43,506.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $832$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(47.6 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{876.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(876.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,032$ on 2020-08-18

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $930,276$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{906,729.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(906,729.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,836$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,510.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 84.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,510.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $173,395$ on 2020-08-18