Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $78,897$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,506.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(64,506.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,959$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(97.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,677.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,677.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,890$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $364,196$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(9.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,780.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(263,780.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,670$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(113.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,969.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(27,969.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $185,150$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $322,177$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(8.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,145.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(296,145.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,466$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,448.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,448.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $279,218$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $254,636$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(9.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(240,691.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,405$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,538.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(34,538.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,089$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,219$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,792.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,792.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,790$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,640.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,640.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,429$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $256,534$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,714.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(207,714.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,434$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,563.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,563.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $141,886$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,560$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,453.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(52,453.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,197$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(100.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,097.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,097.9\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,941$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,499$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(9.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,620.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(25,620.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,775$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(615 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,726.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,726.3\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,360$ on 2020-08-18